Oil Surpasses $100, Yet... The Real Reason Behind the Rise of the New York Stock Market

First, as of April 14 U.S. local time the market was still open, so closing prices and sector returns for the day were not yet available. This article is based on the most recent full trading day, the U.S. close on April 13.

Last night on Wall Street, equities climbed on hopes that the Iran conflict and a potential Strait of Hormuz blockade would not escalate into the worst-case scenario. The S&P 500 rose 1.0% to finish at 6,886.24, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.6% to 48,218.25, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.2% to 23,183.74. The S&P 500 remains within about one percent of its all-time high.

Two main factors drove the rally. First, oil prices surged above $100 a barrel for both WTI and Brent amid fears of a maritime blockade of Iranian exports, but later pared some gains, easing immediate inflation concerns. Second, all eyes are on the March Producer Price Index (PPI) due April 14. With PPI having shown signs of re-acceleration in recent months, a hotter reading could push back expectations for the Fed’s first rate cut. The minutes from the last Federal Open Market Committee meeting underscored “risks of inflation reigniting” while holding the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75%, so Fed officials’ comments and incoming price data are set to drive volatility.

By sector, technology led the advance as software and platform stocks—hard-hit earlier by heavy AI investment costs—bounced back strongly. Shares of Oracle, ServiceNow, and AppLovin recovered some of their big losses, lifting overall growth sentiment. Energy stocks saw only modest gains, weighed down by high oil levels and profit-taking.

On the corporate front, Goldman Sachs reported solid first-quarter results before today’s open, and attention now turns to Q1 earnings from JP Morgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, BlackRock, and Johnson & Johnson on April 14. Consensus forecasts mid-teens earnings growth for the S&P 500 in Q1, making bank, insurer, and asset-manager results the first real test of whether this rebound can sustain itself.