Record High Amid War Risks? Insights from the New York Stock Market
On April 16 in New York (April 17 in Korea), U.S. equity markets extended their record‐setting run. The S&P 500 rose 0.3% to 7,041.28, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.4%, all marking fresh highs. This was the 11th gain in 12 trading sessions and lifted the indexes more than 10% off their late-March lows.
Economic data have bolstered hopes for a “soft landing.” For the week ending April 11, initial jobless claims fell by 11,000 to 207,000—below market forecasts—signaling continued labor‐market strength. The 10-year Treasury yield ticked up to 4.31%, tempering expectations for early rate cuts. New York Fed President John Williams warned that “war in Iran is already driving up inflation pressures,” reinforcing the view that even if the Fed holds rates at its upcoming meeting, its tightening bias will remain.
Corporate earnings have supported a risk-on tone. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), which supplies AI chips to major clients including Apple and Nvidia, reported a 58% year-on-year jump in first-quarter net profit—well ahead of estimates—sparking broad buying in global tech and semiconductor stocks. In the U.S., logistics firm J.B. Hunt and consulting-insurance broker Marsh & McLennan rallied more than 6% and 4%, respectively, on strong results, while Abbott fell 6% after lowering its annual profit outlook. Allbirds, after debuting an AI pivot, gave back over 30% following a prior day’s surge, highlighting froth in the AI theme.
Global risks remain the biggest wildcards. Brent crude closed at $99.39 a barrel, up 4.7% on fears of an Iran conflict and a Hormuz Strait blockade, yet still below recent peaks amid hopes of extending the cease-fire. China’s announcement of 5% GDP growth in the first quarter helped allay some worries about a global slowdown. Investors are watching developments in the Middle East, oil prices, and Fed speeches closely, but as long as AI-driven earnings momentum continues alongside a sturdy U.S. labor market and Chinese growth, the appetite for risk assets is unlikely to wane.