True Signals from the New York Stock Market Amid Economic Pessimism

On June 22 (local time), New York markets extended their rally for an eighth consecutive week, with the S&P 500 rising 0.4%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average advancing 0.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite adding 0.2%. Despite trading near all‐time highs, underlying consumer sentiment remains weak and policy uncertainty persists.

That same day, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index plunged to a record low of 44.8, as sharply higher oil prices driven by the war in Iran and rising gasoline costs intensified inflation concerns and weighed on household outlook. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller signaled he prefers to hold interest rates steady for now but left the door open to further hikes if inflation reaccelerates. Meanwhile, Kevin Warsh was sworn in at the White House as the new Fed chair, kicking off a tug‐of‐war between President Trump’s calls for easing and the Fed’s commitment to independence.

On the corporate front, Ross Stores, Workday, and Zoom all reported results that topped market expectations, lifting software and retail shares. IT and hardware stocks also gained on hopes of increased data-center investment and a wave of PC replacements. International oil prices hovered around $104 per barrel for Brent crude, as ongoing risks in the Strait of Hormuz and concerns about Iran‐related supply disruptions drove up energy and transportation costs—factors that could both squeeze corporate profit margins and fuel inflation going forward.