Variables Awaiting the U.S. Market After Memorial Day Closure

As of the morning of May 26 in Korea, U.S. markets remained closed on May 25 for Memorial Day, with both the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq on holiday. As a result, major indices held steady, carrying over last Friday’s gains—when the S&P 500 rose about 0.4%, the Dow climbed 0.6%, and the Nasdaq gained 0.2%—as investors await tomorrow’s reopening.

What has genuinely moved investor sentiment, however, are economic and policy expectations. This week will bring a succession of key data releases, including the May Consumer Confidence Index, the second estimate of first-quarter GDP, and April’s PCE inflation figures. The minutes from the recent FOMC meeting showed that officials are keeping the option of additional rate hikes on the table if inflation remains above the 2% target, prompting markets to shift from betting on a “hold until year-end” to factoring in renewed tightening risks.

On the global front, the most significant development was a roughly $5-per-barrel drop in crude prices—bringing Brent crude back below $100—after reports of progress in U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks. That relief in energy costs helped lift European and Asian markets in unison, setting up a favorable opening for cyclical sectors, airlines, and consumer stocks when U.S. equity trading resumes. Investors should note, however, that with the Iran conflict still unresolved, volatility in oil and Treasury yields remains elevated. Combined with the Fed’s hawkish tilt, this serves as an ongoing source of risk for technology and long-duration growth stocks.