New York Stock Market Resilient Amid Rising Oil Prices

On the 20th (local time), the New York stock market closed on a quietly weak note. The S&P 500 fell 0.2%, the Dow dropped 0.6%, and the Nasdaq posted a slight decline of less than 0.1%. While AI chip stocks such as Nvidia—which plunged sharply last week—recovered some losses and eased panic across the tech sector, rising energy prices and higher Treasury yields capped the indices’ upside.

With no major economic data, market focus turned entirely to the Middle East. As U.S.–Iran clashes continued, Brent crude surged between $86 and $91 a barrel, and the U.S. average gasoline price again topped $4 a gallon. This reignited inflation fears, driving up the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield and weighing on growth and small-to-mid-cap stocks.

The Federal Reserve is set to meet on July 28–29 next week. Recent minutes and Chair Powell’s testimony to Congress reaffirmed a hawkish bias, underscoring “no tolerance” for high inflation and pointing to AI infrastructure investment and energy prices as upward risks. However, markets increasingly expect a rate pause at this meeting, adopting a wait-and-see stance, and the day’s corporate earnings releases had only limited impact, confined to sectors like defense and telecommunications. This week, earnings from major tech and auto names such as GM, Tesla, and Alphabet—along with Middle East developments and movements in oil prices and Treasury yields—have emerged as key factors that will determine the market’s next direction.